A little more than a century ago, in July 1918, the wives of fishermen in Toyama began to protest against the export of rice from their prefecture. The unrest, which was triggered by the staple grain’s surging price, then spread across Japan. Ultimately, the so-called rice riots were violently extinguished by 100,000 troops; an action that would in time bring down the government.

Japan is not often considered to be a nation of unrest. But it takes rice seriously. Eto Taku, the country’s agriculture minister, discovered as much in May, when he was forced to resign after a ham-fisted joke. Mr Eto said that he did not have to worry about the price of rice, because his supporters made sure to buy it for him. That was quite a statement, given prices have now risen by more than 100% since the beginning of 2024. He resigned in the uproar that followed.



Some residents grumble that tourists, who are arriving in Japan in record numbers, are snaffling the fluffy carbohydrates. In reality, the country’s state-directed agriculture industry, a clubbish relationship between farmers and ministers, and protectionist measures against overseas growers have created the mighty squeeze. Japan grows 99% of the rice it consumes, approaching autarky. Production is therefore highly vulnerable to shocks. A poor harvest in 2023 is still hurting the market.

The government has all but emptied its vast reserves in an attempt to bring prices back to Earth. The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries ordinarily stores around 910,000 tonnes of rice, equivalent to one or two months of demand. After repeated sales this year, the reserve has only 100,000-odd tonnes left. The Japanese language reflects this development. Komai (old rice) describes last year’s harvest. So much rice has been released that the terms kokomai (old, old rice) and kokokomai (old, old, old rice) have soared in popularity. They are used to describe the two- and three-year-old vintages now being sold in stores.

Things are getting desperate for the government. Earlier this month Koizumi Shinjiro, the agriculture minister who replaced Mr Eto, announced measures intended to prevent the purchase of rice for resale. From June 23rd selling grains for more than their original retail price will carry a prison sentence of one year, or a fine of up to ¥1m ($6,900).

With a median age of almost 50, Japan is the world’s oldest big country. Citizens are probably too long in the tooth to repeat the riots of a century ago. But that is not to say the government will escape unscathed. Elections for the upper house of parliament are scheduled for July. Ishiba Shigeru’s government must hope it does not have to dust off the kokokokomai to prevent defeat.■

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