Oil prices remained mostly unchanged on Monday after OPEC+ confirmed plans to raise production by 547,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September, a move widely anticipated by the market.
Brent crude futures edged up 11 cents to $69.78 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 19 cents to $67.52 by 0647 GMT. Both benchmarks had shed roughly $2 per barrel on Friday, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
The output hike marks the full and early reversal of OPEC+’s largest supply cuts and includes a separate increase for the United Arab Emirates, totaling around 2.5 million bpd — roughly 2.4% of global oil demand. OPEC+ cited a resilient global economy and low stockpiles as justification for the decision.
“This additional production appears to have little impact because it was so well flagged ahead of time,” said Michael McCarthy, CEO of Moomoo Australia.
Analysts noted that Asia has absorbed previous supply increases effectively, which has contributed to market stability. According to Goldman Sachs, the real increase in output will be closer to 1.7 million bpd, as some member countries have reduced production to compensate for prior overproduction.
Traders are also watching the fallout from U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, which could disrupt supplies to major importer India. At least two Russian oil tankers en route to Indian refineries were recently diverted, trade sources and data from LSEG show.
If Indian refiners halt purchases, up to 1.7 million bpd of crude supply could be at risk, analysts at ING said. This could potentially eliminate the expected oil surplus through Q4 2025 and into 2026, paving the way for OPEC+ to unwind a further 1.66 million bpd in cuts.
However, Indian government sources told Reuters that India will continue to buy Russian oil, despite threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to impose 100% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian crude.
Investor sentiment is also being weighed down by concerns over global economic growth, particularly in light of weaker-than-expected U.S. job data released Friday.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said over the weekend that tariffs imposed last week on dozens of countries are likely to remain in place, further clouding the demand outlook for oil.
