Once hailed as the political home of Bolivia’s Indigenous majority, the Movement to Socialism (MAS) party is facing a dramatic loss of support from its traditional base — the Aymara and Quechua communities — ahead of the country’s general election on August 17.
The historic alliance that brought MAS and former President Evo Morales to power is unraveling amid Bolivia’s worst economic crisis in decades, frustration over unmet social promises, and a generational shift away from identity politics, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
“Most Indigenous people are having to deal with how to earn money,” said Sayuri Loza, a prominent Aymara social media influencer. “The need for economic stability, education, and healthcare — none of those are being met.”
Evo Morales’ 2006 election marked a turning point in Bolivian history. As the nation’s first Indigenous president, Morales symbolized a new era for Indigenous empowerment. But years of economic instability, allegations of corruption, and infighting within MAS have eroded that legacy.
Younger voters like Lirio Fuertes, 29, who promotes Quechua culture on TikTok, said the party’s symbolic gestures no longer resonate.
“Indigenous identity was paraded in speeches, flags, and festivals,” she said. “But it never translated into better healthcare, education, or justice.”
A July poll by Ipsos CIESMORI showed MAS-aligned candidate Andronico Rodriguez polling at just 6%, down from 19% earlier in the year. The official MAS nominee, Eduardo del Castillo, is polling around 2%. President Luis Arce is not seeking re-election.
The disillusionment is compounded by Morales’ fall from grace. Now facing criminal charges for child abuse and terrorism, which he denies, Morales has retreated from public life and is reportedly hiding in the coca-growing region of Chapare.
“Sadly, Evo Morales and this radicalized group that refuses to relinquish power have caused the Indigenous movement to be associated with anti-democracy, with corruption and abuse,” said Fuertes.
With inflation at a 40-year high, natural gas revenues drying up, and the boliviano losing half its value on the black market, Bolivians are shifting their focus to the economy.
“The ‘wallet vote’ is starting to outweigh the identity vote,” said Quechua political analyst Andres Gomez.
Bolivia’s emerging middle class — much of it Indigenous — now spans professions and economic roles once inaccessible to them. Sociologist Renzo Abruzzese believes this has transformed the country’s social fabric:
“Bolivia's social structure has transformed,” he said.
Although conservative figures Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga currently lead in polls, neither is polling above 30%. With a third of voters still undecided, a runoff vote on October 19 remains likely.
Still, Indigenous voters wary of MAS are also skeptical of the right-wing opposition.
“The right doesn't understand Indigenous Bolivia either,” Loza said.
As Bolivia approaches its most consequential election in a generation, the country’s political future — and the identity of its next leader — remains uncertain.
