The phrase “Hybrid Warfare” has, over the past 20 years, entered the lexicon of many languages, becoming a new term, yet it embodies extremely dangerous dimensions. When US Navy officer and Pentagon analyst Frank Hoffman first theorised this expression, he emphasised that Hybrid Warfare could be carried out not on a single front but across multiple fronts. According to him, the term conceals numerous tactical and technical elements that human intuition cannot easily detect. Particularly in today’s world, against the backdrop of rapid technological development, Hybrid Wars are becoming ever stronger, transforming into the deadliest of weapons.
Indeed, as time has passed, it has been proven that lethal weapons are no longer the primary instrument in wars. Today, information technologies, social media platforms, cyberattacks, narratives, as well as a range of economic pressures are sharper and deadlier than firearms.
Although the concept of Hybrid Warfare began to spread around two decades ago, this threat began to be felt far more strongly in Azerbaijan after 2020. Especially following Azerbaijan’s 44-day military operations against Armenian occupation, attacks against the country from different corners of the world began to manifest more openly and vividly. While the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan had lasted for 30 years, the fact that these countries were part of the post-Soviet space, and bearing in mind that during the Soviet regime their access to the outside world was limited, partly prevented external actors from interfering in the region. For instance, there were many organisations that did not even recognise the South Caucasus and, in their absurd ignorance, sometimes confused the region with Africa. Their lack of understanding of the conflict’s depth soon revealed their ambition to single out the Caucasus as a particular target. Those groupings, which had received financial support from various organisations, were eliminated in short order due to their lack of information.
Nevertheless, this could not allow Azerbaijan, known as a country located in a vulnerable region, to rest easy. The Armenian side, in parallel, began to distort information about the region and spread it worldwide in its own peculiar way. For example, following Azerbaijan’s final anti-terror operation in Garabagh in 2023, much fiercer anti-Azerbaijan campaigns were launched in response. Matters escalated to such an extent that even France, the US Congress, and several human rights organisations, whether knowingly or unwittingly, ended up lending support to these campaigns against Azerbaijan.
Take, for instance, the most recent days, more precisely, the tense relations between Baku and Moscow following Russia’s downing of a passenger plane flying from Baku to Grozny. At precisely that time, it became evident that hundreds of social media platforms, as well as cyber-attackers, had been mobilised against Azerbaijan. This clearly demonstrated that such means can be far more impactful than weapons against any intended target. At that very moment, as Azerbaijani media outlets and news agencies exposed the perpetrators, they themselves came under cyberattacks. Moreover, covert propaganda and disinformation carried out inside the country were unmasked and neutralised thanks to timely and successful measures.
All the same, in the face of Hybrid Wars, which today are increasingly spreading, we must neither remain silent nor rest content with the means at our disposal. For technological advancement demands of us the ability to foresee further ahead in combating such challenges.
Once upon a time, during the Vietnam War, the surprises faced by the American army proved that simply possessing a strong army was not enough. Traps that no one could have imagined, underground ambushes and fortifications astounded the US forces. For such surprises had neither been theorised nor practised in US military training at that time. Hybrid Warfare, just as in traditional wars, demands today a deeper study of the target. For the nature of both types of warfare is the same, and otherwise, the warring side is doomed to failure. For example, shortly after the Second Garabagh War, Western media outlets began circulating photographs of the bombing of Azerbaijan's second largest city Ganja, twisting them to suggest falsely that Azerbaijan had bombed Armenia. By failing to thoroughly investigate the source of the information, these media entities, in disseminating falsehoods, first and foremost damaged their own reputation. The second crucial issue was the eventual exposure of the true facts. This laid bare the lack of professionalism of Armenian lobby organisations and the media outlets serving them. It shows that being in the wrong place at the wrong time ultimately backfires, turning the target against oneself.
Azerbaijan was able to demonstrate resilience and determination against Hybrid Warfare. After the Patriotic War, our media, through their special role in the information sphere, skilfully managed to silence all the pressures from the other side. But this does not mean they will remain silent forever or refrain from launching new offensives. Perhaps even now, an unexpected surprise attack is being devised. This means there is still much work to be done, and it must be particularly emphasised that the struggle against such wars requires joint efforts. Indeed, combating Hybrid Warfare is possible not only with strong armies but also through international cooperation, information security, economic resilience, and the safeguarding of public unity. In the modern era, the victory of states depends less on the power of their tanks and artillery than on the effectiveness of strategic alliances forged through collective endeavour.
Experience also shows that the main target of Hybrid Warfare is human psychology. Therefore, public unity and trust in the state play a crucial role. Education and culture also have an invaluable share here, for such instruments strengthen national values while playing an exceptional role in reinforcing the moral immunity of the people. In other words, only after restoring internal order can one build a defensive system against external threats and shield oneself from the perils of the age. As Azerbaijan is strategically located in a region where interests collide, the most essential need is to take serious steps towards safeguarding the economic and energy security of the South Caucasus. Although Azerbaijan has carried this out alone for over 30 years, today it is already evident that the joint initiative of neighbouring states is required. This means there is a pressing need to establish a defensive line against Hybrid Warfare, namely to ensure the protection of energy resources, transport corridors, and strategic enterprises.
It is well known that Armenia, while seeking to normalise its relations with Azerbaijan and Türkiye, is also today striving to reduce its economic dependence on Russia. Yet it is failing to take the necessary steps in diversifying its supply chains. The contradictory rhetoric voiced in Yerevan today deprives the country of participating in large-scale projects, energy diplomacy, and collective efforts. This undermines the guarantee of economic and political resilience. As a closed country, Armenia is in an even more difficult situation. Thus, instead of focusing on subversive activities at home, it would be more beneficial for Armenia to take the necessary steps in opening communication lines. For it must not be forgotten that Hybrid Wars always tend to move towards regions marked by conflict, stagnation, and broken relations.
