The geopolitical landscape of Eurasia is undergoing profound transformations, shaped by shifting alliances, ongoing conflicts, and new opportunities for cooperation. Against this backdrop, relations between Azerbaijan and Ukraine have taken on heightened significance. In recent years, Baku and Kyiv have demonstrated unwavering support for one another, particularly in matters of territorial integrity and sovereignty.
With Azerbaijan beginning natural gas exports to Ukraine and both countries seeking to deepen economic and political ties, their partnership has reached a critical juncture. At the same time, regional dynamics are being influenced by the war in Ukraine, Moscow’s evolving role, and efforts to secure lasting peace in the South Caucasus following the Washington meeting between the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia.
To gain insight into these pressing issues, News.Az spoke with Ukrainian political expert Rinat Kovbasyuk, who shared his views on the future of Azerbaijan-Ukraine relations, the prospects for energy cooperation, the state of negotiations with Russia, Europe’s defense readiness, and the delicate path toward lasting peace in the region.
Source: https://espreso.tv/
– How would you characterize the current level of relations between Azerbaijan and Ukraine?
I believe that relations between Ukraine and Azerbaijan have always been at a high level. Both Azerbaijan and Ukraine have consistently supported each other on the issue of territorial integrity. For official Baku, Kyiv’s clear stance has always been very important, given Ukraine’s political weight as a regional player. Naturally, when we faced a similar problem, Baku did not remain indifferent and firmly declared that Azerbaijan stands on the side of international law.
When the war began, Azerbaijan provided humanitarian aid to the Ukrainian people, and ordinary Azerbaijani citizens gathered in front of Ukraine’s embassy in Baku to express massive solidarity. These positive examples of cooperation between our peoples have strengthened the friendship and strategic partnership between the two countries, which remain very strong in 2025.
The recent tragedy involving the Azerbaijani plane once again demonstrated that the Kremlin is not prepared to treat the former Soviet republics, including Azerbaijan, as equal partners. Against the backdrop of Moscow’s dismissive attitude toward this tragedy, Baku has been gradually distancing itself from Russia and decided to accelerate the development of Azerbaijan-Ukraine relations.
It is clear that Baku’s goal is not to enter into open confrontation with Moscow, but at the same time, Azerbaijan’s leadership seeks to emphasize that mutual respect is a fundamental principle of international relations. If the Kremlin believes it can treat Baku as a “younger brother,” it must understand that we are in the 21st century, and it is time to abandon medieval thinking. Relationships should be built on the principles of good neighborliness, not on the outdated belief that others have no choice but to tolerate anything. As reality has shown, Azerbaijan will not simply endure this — instead, it has raised concrete issues.
It appears that the Kremlin has been unable to provide adequate answers to these questions. Naturally, such behavior has only accelerated Baku’s drift toward closer ties with Ukraine, which, as I mentioned earlier, was already a reliable partner for Azerbaijan.
I would also note that trade turnover between the two countries has grown by almost 9%, which demonstrates a positive dynamic, especially given the ongoing full-scale war in Ukraine. The recent visit by Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha and his meeting with President Ilham Aliyev clearly indicate that both sides are fully committed to productive cooperation. I am confident that political and economic relations between our countries will soon reach their highest level yet.
– On July 28, Azerbaijan began exporting natural gas to Ukraine. How do you assess the prospects for energy cooperation between the two countries?
At this stage, Azerbaijani gas is not a critical factor for Ukraine’s economy, but it plays an important role in diversifying our gas import sources. In any case, this is a very significant event for Ukraine because, de facto, we now have another supplier. This means that Ukraine will be able to survive the winter more securely amid constant Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure.
For the next 10–15 years, almost all of Azerbaijan’s natural gas is already under contract with other buyers. Therefore, Ukraine is unlikely to become the main consumer of Azerbaijani gas. Nevertheless, the vector of cooperation in this sector has been clearly defined, and we are moving in the right direction.
The main task now is to at least maintain the current pace of cooperation, or ideally, increase it further. Both sides will benefit from this: Azerbaijan will strengthen its position as a key energy player, while Ukraine’s economy gains another reliable partner in the energy sector.
– How do you assess the prospects for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia? Which scenarios do you consider the most likely?
In my view, there are no genuine negotiations taking place. The Kremlin is once again merely imitating a negotiation process. Therefore, it is unrealistic to expect any significant progress in the near future.
Currently, Russia’s leadership aims to freeze the conflict to partially lift sanctions or at least buy time for a temporary pause. It is clear that if Russian offensive operations succeed, Moscow will not stop at Donbas or the other occupied regions. Its strategic goal remains the occupation of the entire territory of Ukraine.
Russia is already transitioning its economy to a full wartime footing, which leaves little room for optimism. The recent drone strike on Poland shows that Moscow has begun testing NATO’s ability to defend itself. While some may claim the drones “went off course,” there is a strong possibility this was a deliberate provocation.
In an earlier interview with Azerbaijani media, I once said that the fate of the Karabakh conflict would ultimately be decided not by diplomacy, but by the strength and determination of the Azerbaijani soldier — and that is exactly what happened. Diplomacy merely followed the realities established on the battlefield. The same logic applies to the Ukraine-Russia conflict: diplomacy will only become effective when the Kremlin realizes that its defeat is inevitable. At present, there are no signs of this happening.
Therefore, for now, we must focus on ensuring Ukraine does not lose this greatest battle since World War II. Unfortunately, there is no light at the end of the tunnel in the near future.
– Are European countries ready to increase defense spending and start producing weapons for Ukraine domestically?
European countries are gradually moving in this direction because they simply have no alternative. As NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said, there are only two options: either we increase defense spending, or we start learning Russian intensively. Clearly, most countries will choose the first path — perhaps only Hungary might prefer the second, though even that is doubtful.
NATO is now actively scaling up joint weapons production with Ukraine. For instance, Finland plans to launch mass production of drones, while the UK is investing hundreds of millions of dollars in drone manufacturing. Denmark is also allocating millions of euros for the production of self-propelled artillery systems in Ukraine because Ukraine can build them faster and more cost-effectively.
Norwegian company Kongsberg Defence is focusing on producing maritime drones, with Norway allocating €580 million for this purpose. Lithuania plans to produce drones, electronic warfare systems, and ammunition. In May 2025, Germany announced plans to produce long-range missiles with a range of up to 2,500 kilometers.
All of this shows that the EU and NATO countries, together with Ukraine, are strengthening their collective defense capabilities against an aggressive neighbor — and this is a positive development. As the saying goes, “If you want peace, prepare for war.” Many Ukrainians once considered Russians a “brotherly nation” and failed to see the threat, leaving the country unprepared for a full-scale invasion.
As a result, Ukraine was forced to make critical defense decisions only during active warfare. This has cost the Ukrainian people dearly — with immense casualties among both military personnel and civilians, the loss of significant territories, and economic damages amounting to billions of dollars.
Europe clearly does not want to repeat Ukraine’s experience. This is why EU countries are now actively investing in defense technologies. Some, like Sweden and Finland, even joined NATO at the start of the war to secure additional guarantees for their own safety.
While Europe’s progress may sometimes seem slow, it is now moving decisively in the right direction, and there is hope that this momentum will continue.
– How do you assess the prospects for a peace agreement in the South Caucasus following the August 8 meeting between the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Washington?
I believe the prospects for peace are now significantly better than before. There is a high probability that lasting peace between the two countries can be achieved. However, it is important to keep in mind that while Azerbaijan’s government is politically stable, the situation in Armenia could change following future parliamentary elections. Even though Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan currently enjoys substantial support, political dynamics in Armenia remain unpredictable.
It is evident that a part of Armenian society cannot accept the loss of Karabakh, so certain challenges cannot be ruled out in the future. Nevertheless, I remain hopeful that Baku and Yerevan will establish constructive cooperation, as it is in both countries’ mutual interest.
There is no point in continuing hostility. The international community recognizes Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, so the focus should now shift toward mutually beneficial economic cooperation and strengthening regional sovereignty. I believe the two nations are capable of resolving common challenges without external intermediaries.
The dialogue that has begun provides a historic opportunity for both Baku and Yerevan to open a new chapter in their relationship and build a more peaceful and prosperous future for the South Caucasus.
By Asif Aydinly
