Recent developments in the Middle East show that the Strait of Hormuz, beyond being an energy route, is turning into one of the main arenas of regional and international competition. The blockade policy announced by the administration of US President Donald Trump regarding Iran reveals that a new phase is taking shape in the region. This policy, while serving as a tool of economic pressure, also increases the likelihood of military tension. The current situation has a wide range of impact, from the security of Gulf countries to the stability of global energy markets.
Blockade strategy and Washington’s line
Washington’s recent statements show that the United States is trying to weaken Iran not only through sanctions but also by increasing control over its energy exports, which are one of its main sources of economic income. This, in turn, turns the Strait of Hormuz from a geographical passage into more of a political and strategic pressure platform.
Qatari political commentator Karim Ali Mejri evaluates this process as an already established reality.
“The implementation of a blockade by the Donald Trump administration in the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a possibility, but the execution of a concrete political and military strategy, and the steps taken on April 13 show that Washington intends to force Iran to retreat not only through diplomatic pressure, but by systematically restricting its energy and logistics outlets, which indicates that a new phase of confrontation has begun in the region,” the Qatari expert told APA.
This approach shows that the United States is using the blockade more as a tool of economic pressure than a military intervention. However, the potential of such a strategy to increase tensions remains.
Change in the balance of power in the region
If a blockade is implemented, it is likely that this step could affect the position of US allies. Limiting Iran’s oil exports may lead to a weakening of its regional influence. At the same time, the process may also create a more complex security environment.
Karim Ali Mejri explains this change by noting that the blockade may weaken Iran, but increase instability in the region: “Such a blockade could significantly reduce Iran’s oil revenues, weakening its military and political influence in the region, and this could create a shift in the balance of power in favor of US allies. However, at the same time, this process could push Iran toward harsher and asymmetric responses, which would create a new security environment generating long-term instability in the region.”
Kərim Əli Mejri qeyd edir ki, Körfəz ölkələri İranın zəifləməsini dəstəkləsə də, eskalasiyadan çəkinərək deeskalasiyanı üstün tuturlar: “Səudiyyə Ərəbistanı və Birləşmiş Ərəb Əmirlikləri kimi Körfəz ölkələri İranın zəifləməsini strateji baxımdan müsbət qiymətləndirə və bu addımı səssiz şəkildə dəstəkləyə bilərlər, lakin onlar eyni zamanda, anlayırlar ki, hərbi eskalasiya ilk növbədə onların enerji infrastrukturu və iqtisadi sabitliyi üçün birbaşa təhlükə yaradır, buna görə də rəsmi mövqelərində deeskalasiyanı və diplomatik həll yollarını ön plana çıxarmağa çalışacaqlar”.
From this perspective, the change in the balance of power is not limited only to the weakening of one side but also leads to the emergence of new risks.
Reaction of Arab countries
The current situation creates complex choices for the Gulf countries. While they may view the weakening of Iran positively in terms of their security interests, they are wary of the possibility of a large-scale war in the region.
This position shows that Arab countries, while aligning with the United States in the field of security, also prefer reducing tensions on the political level.
Impact on the global energy market
As the Strait of Hormuz is one of the main routes of global energy supply, any crisis arising here directly affects the global economy.
Karim Ali Mejri emphasizes that the blockade could not only increase oil prices but also lead to broad economic fluctuations in global markets:
“A blockade or any restriction in the Strait of Hormuz could immediately affect the global energy market and cause oil prices to rise above 100 dollars. At the same time, considering that approximately 20–21 percent of global oil trade passes through this route, such a situation would not be limited only to an increase in energy prices, but would also result in rising logistics costs, increasing insurance risks, and large-scale economic fluctuations in global markets.”
This assessment shows that the issue is not only related to regional energy flows, but is also a factor affecting international economic stability.
Iran’s control mechanism and impact on exports
Iran is not only taking a defensive position against the blockade, but is also trying to increase its control capabilities over the Strait. This could affect the export activities of Arab countries.
According to the Qatari political commentator, Iran’s control mechanisms could restrict the exports of Arab countries and affect their energy reliability: “The control and monitoring mechanisms implemented by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, including steps taken within the framework of coordination with regional actors, could directly limit the oil and gas exports of Arab countries. This could result in delays of ships, changes in routes, and the use of longer and more expensive alternative routes, thereby affecting the reliability of Gulf countries as energy suppliers.”
This approach shows that Iran can use the strait as a tool of pressure even without completely closing it.
Changes in security strategies
The current situation makes it necessary for the Gulf countries to reconsider their security strategies. Energy infrastructure and maritime routes come to the forefront as more vulnerable objects.
Karim Ali Mejri believes that under such conditions, the Gulf countries will update their security strategies, diversify routes, and strengthen military cooperation:
“In such a situation, the Gulf countries will be forced to rebuild their security strategies, invest in alternative pipelines and new logistics capabilities to diversify export routes, strengthen military cooperation with the United States and Israel, and implement more extensive measures, particularly in the areas of maritime security, air defense systems, and the protection of energy infrastructure.”
This indicates a renewal of the security approach in the region within a broader and longer-term framework.
Risk mitigation and alternative options
The current situation shows that alongside military measures, economic and diplomatic steps are also important. Gulf countries are trying to develop multi-faceted strategies to reduce risks.
The commentator notes that in order to reduce risks, Gulf countries should diversify routes, increase reserves, and expand cooperation: “To reduce risks, Gulf countries should focus on creating alternative export routes, increasing strategic oil reserves, and strengthening multilateral diplomacy. At the same time, expanding cooperation with major energy partners such as China, investing more in the LNG sector, and accelerating the diversification of energy sources will play an important role in ensuring long-term stability.”
This approach shows that the countries of the region are trying both to adapt to the current situation and to create long-term resilience.
Conclusion
The processes taking place around the Strait of Hormuz show that the region is facing a new geopolitical environment. Although the US blockade policy is aimed at weakening Iran, this step also has an impact on the overall level of risk in the region. Iran’s response capabilities, the cautious stance of Arab countries, and the sensitivity of global markets make this process complex and multi-layered.
The Qatari political commentator states that what is happening in Hormuz is a new phase determining global energy and geopolitical balance: “The processes taking place around the Strait of Hormuz are no longer a local confrontation, but the beginning of a new phase that determines global energy security and the international geopolitical balance, and every step taken at this stage can have serious consequences for both the region and the global economy.”
