The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sharply increased its forecast for the price of Azerbaijani oil, APA-Economics reports.
In the mission statement published by the IMF in February, the average price of Azerbaijani oil for 2026 was forecast at 66.7 US dollars.
However, in the final report approved by the Executive Board at the end of April, this figure was raised to 84.2 US dollars. Thus, the forecast for 2026 was increased by 17.5 US dollars, or 26.2%.
The Fund also raised its forecast for 2027 from 64.9 dollars to 78 dollars, for 2028 from 65.4 dollars to 76.2 dollars, for 2029 from 66.4 dollars to 75.9 dollars, for 2030 from 67.2 dollars to 75.7 dollars, and for 2031 from 68.5 dollars to 77.2 dollars.
The IMF noted that the price assumptions are based on the baseline scenario of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) and an additional premium of 2-3 US dollars per barrel. This premium reflects the fact that Azerbaijan’s main export grade, Azeri Light crude oil, is usually sold at a higher price than Brent crude.
The sharp increase in the forecasts is linked to the IMF’s reassessment of international oil price expectations amid growing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz in particular.
