By dragging itself into multiple simultaneous confrontations, Russia is not merely mismanaging its neighborhood—it is actively dismantling the remnants of its influence across the post-Soviet space.
For four years, Russia has been mired in its brutal war against Ukraine. It’s a conflict with no clear path to victory and even less room for retreat. Victory would require deploying weapons of mass destruction—an option the Kremlin dares not use, fearing devastating retaliation from Ukraine’s Western allies. And this wouldn’t be about drones. The response would be swift, direct, and potentially fatal for the domestic stability that Moscow clings to. The Russian public, still largely shielded from the war’s true costs, might not remain passive if destruction and death reach their own streets.
Yet Ukraine isn’t the only front where Moscow is losing ground. In parallel, the Kremlin has opened new fronts—less visible but equally consequential—against Armenia and Azerbaijan. These hybrid wars are rooted in arrogance, imperial reflexes, and an utter failure to understand that the post-Soviet era is over.
Source: BBC
Take Azerbaijan. Once one of the few countries in the region that maintained a pragmatic and even warm relationship with Russia, Baku has been pushed to the brink of a diplomatic rupture. The recent killing of Azerbaijani nationals by Russian security forces in Yekaterinburg sent shockwaves through Azerbaijani society. Public outrage erupted, and for the first time in decades, relations with Moscow approached a point of no return. In recent days, the Kremlin seems to have realized the danger and has toned down its aggressive rhetoric. But the damage is done—and Baku is no longer willing to be bullied.
For Moscow, the implications are severe. Losing Azerbaijan would not simply mean the loss of a partner—it would mean the total collapse of its influence in the South Caucasus. Yet the Kremlin seems either blind to this or unwilling to change its behavior. Its hybrid propaganda war continues, even if the volume has been dialed down.
Then there’s Armenia—long considered a loyal ally, a strategic foothold for Russian troops, and an unquestioning member of Moscow’s orbit. Not anymore. Inspired by Azerbaijan’s bold stance, and disillusioned by Russia’s treatment of its allies, Yerevan is beginning to break free. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has made clear overtures toward reconciliation with Baku—an essential step if Armenia hopes to reduce its dependency on Russia and pivot toward a more balanced foreign policy.
Source: APA
At the heart of Armenia’s frustrations lies Moscow’s weapon of choice: propaganda. For years, Russian state TV has broadcast anti-Armenian narratives—disparaging Armenian institutions, values, and even the nation’s identity. Until now, the Armenian government tolerated it. But that may be changing. Armenia’s Television and Radio Commission has officially condemned Russia’s RTR-Planeta and Channel One for repeated violations of bilateral media agreements, accusing them of sowing division and inciting hatred.
And this isn’t just about television. Armenia’s Foreign Ministry has now formally protested the Russian state media’s attacks on its leadership, calling out the toxic rhetoric of Duma deputies, Kremlin officials, and government-aligned pundits. Moscow’s response? Silence.
Russia’s propaganda machine, designed to sow doubt and assert dominance across the Russian-speaking world, is failing. In Azerbaijan, its attacks have only stirred unprecedented anti-Russian sentiment. In Armenia, it is driving a wedge between Moscow and a government that is no longer willing to serve as a pawn.
The irony is striking. In its effort to control the region, Russia is accelerating its own isolation. If Armenia and Azerbaijan reach a peace agreement—and both are showing signs they may—Moscow will find itself completely shut out of a region it once considered its backyard. Worse still, Baku, having proven its resilience and independence, may even emerge as Yerevan’s unexpected ally—politically and economically—against future Russian aggression.
This is not just a diplomatic failure. It’s a strategic catastrophe, authored by a Kremlin that still believes force and fear can substitute for respect and cooperation. The post-Soviet world has moved on. Russia hasn’t. And it is paying the price on all three fronts.
By Tural Heybatov