"Underlying measures of current price growth have not changed significantly and generally remain above 4% in annualized terms. The economy continues to return to a balanced growth path. Lending growth has accelerated in recent months. Inflation expectations remain high," the statement said, News.Az reports, citing TASS.
The regulator noted that it intends to maintain such a level of monetary policy strictness as necessary to bring inflation back to target by 2026, and that further decisions on the key rate will depend on the sustainability of the inflation slowdown and the dynamics of inflation expectations.
The Bank of Russia also noted that, taking into account the ongoing monetary policy, annual inflation is expected to decline to 6-7% in 2025, return to 4% in 2026, and remain aligned with the target thereafter. "Most indicators of underlying inflation are in the range of 4-6% in annualized terms. As of 8 September 2025, annual inflation stood at 8.2%," the regulator said.
"High-frequency data and survey indicators show a slowdown in overall economic activity growth in 2025 Q3, while the growth rate is still positive. The dynamics of business activity is uneven across industries. A significant cooldown is recorded in export-oriented industries. Domestic demand is backed up by rising household incomes and budget expenditures. Consumer activity growth has even slightly sped up," the regulator said.
At the same time, according to the Central Bank, tensions in the labor market have not significantly decreased. "According to surveys, the share of enterprises experiencing labor shortages continues to shrink. Wages rise more slowly than in 2024, but their growth rate is still outpacing the growth in labor productivity. Unemployment is at its record lows," the statement said.
"Proinflationary risks still prevail over disinflationary ones in the mid-term horizon. The key proinflationary risks are associated with a longer upward deviation of the Russian economy from a balanced growth path and high inflation expectations, as well as with the deterioration in the terms of external trade. A further decrease in the growth rate of the global economy and oil prices in case of escalating trade disputes may have proinflationary effects through the ruble exchange rate dynamics. Geopolitical tensions remain a significant uncertainty factor. Disinflationary risks involve a more significant slowdown in domestic demand," the Bank of Russia said.
The Bank of Russia Board of Directors will hold its next key rate meeting on October, 24 2025.
