In the statement made by the Machinery Exporters Association (MAİB), the machinery manufacturing sector data for the January-July period was shared.
According to the data, total machinery exports, including free zones, increased by 0.9 percent to $16.2 billion during the period. The sector, which saw its exports decrease by 6.1 percent in volume, saw its average price per kilogram increase by 6.7 percent to $7.9.
The sector saw a 4.4 percent month-on-month increase in July, with annualized exports up 0.6 percent to $28.4 billion. According to Exporters' Association records, machinery exports to Germany, which turned positive last month, rose 1.7 percent over the seven-month period.
Following Germany, which saw $1.8 billion in exports during the period, the US came in second with $1 billion. Exports to the US increased by a remarkable 9.2 percent month-over-month in July, while exports to Kazakhstan rose by 46 percent and to Morocco by 37 percent.
Poland was the market that saw the largest contraction after Russia. While exports of packaging machinery, heaters, and ovens increased by over 40 percent in July, the largest monthly declines were seen in bearings and rubber and plastic processing machinery. The largest export item in the seven-month period was domestic and industrial refrigeration machinery, with a 4.7 percent increase.
Kutlu Karavelioğlu, Chairman of the Machinery Exporters' Association, whose views were included in the statement, stated that the US-EU customs agreement was the painful birth of a new architecture in the balance of power.
Karavelioğlu noted that Trump, who continues to threaten to impose secondary tariffs on countries trading with Russia if they cannot reach an agreement, noted that India's increase in customs duties to 50 percent showed that he will continue to use the tax weapon without hesitation.
Karavelioğlu pointed out that the EU, which opened the process by raising its hand but bowed to US pressure at the negotiation table, displayed a pragmatic approach by accepting to sacrifice its already high gains rather than bear the cost of uncertainty, and continued:
The concessions, based on the aim of improving transatlantic trade, will impose high financial burdens on the industrial and manufacturing sectors of this continent, where we have the greatest commercial integration, and will also affect our main suppliers, like us. However, we believe the agreement relatively protects Germany, which is critical to our machinery exports, and we anticipate no negative impact on our exports to this country in the near term.
"The WTO's forecast of a nominal increase in world merchandise trade and the withdrawal of recession expectations are positive."
Kutlu Karavelioğlu stated that although the limited inflationary effects of the tariffs would appear to allow central banks to continue their monetary easing efforts, the investment and industrial climate is still fragile.
Karavelioğlu noted that the global industrial PMI's dip into contraction territory again in July indicated that trade negotiations and tariff uncertainties were putting pressure on real production beyond expectations. He added, "In this respect, the WTO's forecast for a nominal increase in world goods trade and the decline in recession expectations are positive. However, the ongoing decline in orders indicates that, even though a new era will begin with the clarification of tariffs, the pressure on production, investment, and employment will continue for some time."
Karavelioğlu, discussing the third heat map report of the Import Surveillance Working Group, established by the European Commission to identify commodity groups and source countries whose imports have grown abnormally, noted the following:
Fearing that the US's additional tariffs and import restrictions could lead to an extraordinary increase in goods destined for the EU, the EU has urgently implemented a measure we have been discussing domestically for a long time, and has begun analyzing routes and commodity groups using a periodic heat map. As previously done with steel, the EU will implement trade measures against goods that systematically attack its domestic market based on these analyses.
While it's known that we pose no threat to the EU with our industry integrated with quality and standards, our inclusion among the monitored countries is significant both in terms of the Customs Union, which we insist on updating, and in terms of concerns about goods that may pass through us. The report's finding that Türkiye's exports to the EU are currently below average, and China's are significantly above average, in terms of machinery, equipment, and related services should be one of the issues we must address immediately and carefully.
"Access to unrestricted and affordable financing is essential for the sector to continue where it left off."
Karavelioğlu, Chairman of the Machinery Exporters' Association, pointed out that the decline in machinery imports in the last 12 months has entered an upward trend again, with the acceleration seen in the last three months and especially the 15.4 percent increase recorded in June.
Karavelioğlu stated that the 18.1 percent increase in machinery imports from China in the first half of the year strengthened Turkey's dependence on this country, which the West is attempting to take precautions against, in the global value and supply chain. He said, "This situation reveals the relative flexibility of Turkey's import policy at a time when protectionism is rapidly increasing and tariffs are distorting trade routes. This situation, which has shaken market balances to the detriment of domestic producers, also points to the importance of fine-tuning the alignment of industrial and trade policies. Rapidly implementing long-term strategies to increase investment and production capacity is critical to prevent imports from turning into structural dependency, especially for products with high technological depth . "
Karavelioğlu stated that TİM's new motto, "Our business is production, our strength is export," emphasizes that sustainable success in exports depends on the suitability of the production and operating environment. He added, "Allocating resources to the rapidly increasing working capital needs of the machinery manufacturing sector, which has doubled its production and 1.5 times its exports in the last five years, will not have an inflationary impact, and access to unrestricted and appropriate financing is essential for the sector to continue where it left off . "
