"Security formula in the era of chaos: Military and economic power, strategic patience, and ethical honesty" - the theses from the President's speech are in fact both a formula for Azerbaijan's activities and a call to the world "to preserve moral legitimacy alongside strength", an ideological manifesto of foreign policy and security.
• First principle: Building up military and economic power;
• Second principle: remaining within the framework of international law, despite everything;
• Third principle: Commitment to universal human and ethical values: to be "on the right path", to be just;
• Fourth principle: Priority to the closest allies in foreign policy and determination of dominant directions;
• Fifth principle: Achieving a balance of global forces around the country and continuing multipolar foreign policy.
The twenty-first century has left behind exhausting, draining, economically crisis-ridden, and militarily bloody 25 years. However, the first quarter of the century has passed the baton to an even bloodier, more crisis-ridden, and frightening second quarter.
Over 25 years, the world economy has experienced several significant economic crises, including two major global recessions in 2009 and 2020, as well as numerous regional and national downturns and financial shocks.
The global financial crisis that began in 2008 laid the foundation for the transition to an era of new economic and trade crises. The pandemic crisis of 2020 deepened it further and expanded the boundaries of trade wars. Finally, the world has entered the current stage — an era of open confrontation over basic resources, sales markets, trade routes, and advantageous geographical positions. The great powers have started a dangerous "period of absence of deterrent force and legal mechanisms" for us.
In an interview with local television channels, President Ilham Aliyev assessed the situation in the world at the junction of the first and second quarters of the century as follows: "...in today's world, such a concept as international law does not exist. Everyone should forget about this. There is strength, there is cooperation, there is alliance, and there is mutual support. Naturally, you yourself must be sure that you are on the right path. No country, no leader should do anything wrong, should not covet the territorial integrity of any country, should not occupy any country."
In this assessment of the situation by the President of Azerbaijan, an action plan can also be traced. In fact, the President answered the question that most small and medium powers are now pondering: "What formula of behavior to choose for times when international law has collapsed?"
This is the formula of "Ethical Realpolitik"!
The requirement of the 21st century: international law and universal human values are a pragmatic attribute of "Realpolitik"!
In the current global situation, the President has put forward the concept of "combining international law, universal human values and the principles of Realpolitik", a formula that we can call "Ethical Realpolitik". This is a new approach adapted to modern conditions. This approach is formed as a result of the synthesis of both military-economic power (Realpolitik) and strategic patience and ethical honesty.
Thus, "Realpolitik", applied by very serious politicians in the 16th, 17th, 19th, and even 20th centuries, preferred to rely not on ideological principles and not even on ethical values, but on pragmatism and cold calculation. And the rejection of ethical values in the name of state and national interests was based on the evaluation of decisions made not through the prism of "good" and "evil",but through the prism of "effectiveness" and "ineffectiveness".
In the platform proposed by President Ilham Aliyev, even if the use of force factor for self-defense is inevitable, remaining within the framework of norms of international law (despite its formal existence), proceeding from universal human, ethical values is no longer a personal choice, but an inevitable necessity, a security formula.
The words "No country, no leader should do anything wrong, should not covet the territorial integrity of any country, should not occupy any country" are a call to harmonize religious, humanistic and ethical values with international law, to apply the principle of "inseparability of law and ethical values".
That is, the crisis of international law should not turn into a crisis of universal human values. For example, "life", which is the highest value for human existence, as a universal human value is also protected by law. However, if the application of international law depends on the activities of international institutions, then kindness, mercy, justice, and moral values are personal qualities controlled by conscience. These values, which together with international law form the basis of moral codes, are universal values valid for every person anywhere in the world. Despite the change in forms of expression, they have remained relevant for centuries, stand above time, and create the ground for finding a common language between different peoples, peaceful coexistence, and global cooperation.
Therefore, to deny them at the dictation of transient conditions of short-term periods is a big mistake and danger.
In the period of crisis of international law and deification of force, calling to be "on the right path" and "not to do anything illegal", the President called precisely for the importance of observing moral values.
This concept implies not going beyond the framework of universal human, ethical values, along with the basic principles of "Realpolitik" — 1) priority of national interests, 2) balance of power, 3) pragmatism instead of political ideology, 4) flexibility and adaptability (adaptation to conditions).
Therefore, this is not the result of an idealistic approach detached from reality, but on the contrary, the requirement of a new "Realpolitik" reflecting the reality of the 21st century and different from previous centuries: when the applied force, especially military, goes beyond universal human and ethical values, this leads to a great catastrophe for those who apply it as well.
International law institutions may enter a period of crisis, may lose their deterrent force against the behavior of states, but all leaders, first of all, are carriers of human feelings, governments consist of people, and remaining human in any situation has historical significance both for heads of governments making decisions and for the people and countries they represent.
Jules Verne's Model: how to remain human in a civilizational crisis
At the end of Jules Verne's novel "The Children of Captain Grant", Captain Grant says that the greatest force that did not let him lose his humanity on a lonely island far from civilization for many years was hope and faith in God, labor, love for the Motherland, and higher goals. Captain Grant says that he prayed every day not to lose his spirituality, and in his dreams, imagined the day of reunion with his children. That is, the factors that keep a person "human" even in the most difficult conditions are faith in spiritual values, love for family, and a set higher goal. And goals become "higher" precisely when they contain spiritual values.
In the current era of legal chaos, the decisions that will be made by leaders will leave a deep mark both in their personal lives and in the fate of their states and the history of their people.
Lessons of history: the boomerang effect of cruelty
In large cycles, periods of legal vacuum end in approximately 8-12 years, conditions change, and one has to answer for decisions made during the period of legal vacuum. A striking example of this is the recognition in court in Baku of persons who committed ethnic cleansing and war crimes against Azerbaijan in conditions of a vacuum of international law and deterrent force in the 90s.
In history, there are many other instructive examples of crimes committed in periods when international law was paralyzed, only the strong were right, and moral values were lost.
During the Thirty Years' War, when international law did not exist, the inhumane, cruel treatment of Protestants by the Habsburgs contradicted Christian-Catholic values as well. Cruelty not only did not help the Habsburgs achieve their goals, but also led to the loss of dynastic territories. The Peace of Westphalia dealt a huge blow to the Habsburgs and consolidated the supremacy of state interests over dynastic ones, the stage of the Habsburgs' decline as a dynasty began. The cruelty of the era without international law did not help the Habsburgs, but on the contrary, laid the foundation for decline and, ultimately, condemnation.
During the period of the English Revolution and civil wars of the 17th century, the cruel behavior of Oliver Cromwell, such as the mass extermination of civilians, Catholics and prisoners, although assessed by some groups as "surgical intervention" for "higher goals" and justified by terms of "Realpolitik", laid the foundation for centuries of enmity between Ireland and England, preserving negative traces until the 20th century. The execution of the king, mass killings in Ireland, and the forcible imposition of the Puritan way of life led to the restoration of the monarchy by Charles II in 1660, and the people, disappointed in Oliver, greeted this with joy.
In a similar period at the beginning of the 19th century, all of Europe condemned Napoleon, who pursued a policy of subordinating the existing rules and borders in Europe to his will, and sent him to Elba. And the French had to watch Russian and German cavalrymen passing through the streets of Paris.
The Treaty of Versailles provided for the trial of Kaiser Wilhelm II, considered the main culprit of the First World War, and "war criminals". True, the Kaiser was able to evade trial, but was forced to abdicate and flee to the Netherlands. His ally, Emperor of Austria-Hungary Charles I, ended his life in exile.
A. Hitler, who regarded the paralysis of the League of Nations and the collapse of international law as a favorable opportunity for any atrocities and occupation policy, in the end not only committed tragic acts for himself and Germany, but also led his allies to catastrophe.
Mikhail Gorbachev's attempt to send troops to the Baltics and the South Caucasus, to cruelly maintain order, pitting peoples against each other in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, became both his personal tragedy and accelerated the collapse of the USSR.
The cruel, harsh decisions of S. Milošević, who took advantage of the legal gaps of the transition to a new era after the end of the Cold War and the violation of the geopolitical balance, not only did not save the former Yugoslavia, but, on the contrary, accelerated its disintegration and made it irreversible. The Hague Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia convicted 93 people belonging to all parties to the conflict.
The listed examples of the fates of powerful figures of their time who committed atrocities from the 17th century to the present day (a total of 6 cases), regardless of international law, religious and universal human values, prove that in almost all cases one has to answer for decisions made during a period of legal vacuum.
In general, "cruelty" and "politics" are incompatible concepts; it is a "mixture" leading to even greater disasters. This is by no means an effective method of solving modern political problems, and unlike the Middle Ages, it gives the opposite result in almost all cases.
The 44-day war and the anti-terrorist operation: "Ethical Realpolitik" in practice
A model of the unity of Realpolitik, international law, and ethical values in extreme conditions
During the 44-day war, the Azerbaijani Army, constantly conducting offensive operations and being the strong side, was given one repeated instruction: civilians should not be targeted, civilian objects should not be damaged. The fact that during the anti-terrorist operation of 2023, despite its conduct in a populated area, civilians were not harmed, and people leaving Khankendi were provided with assistance, became precisely an example of combining Realpolitik with ethical, universal human values.Thus, Azerbaijan, after 30 years of fruitless negotiations, liberated its territories by military means, using 1) national interests, 2) international balance of power, 3) a favorable military-political balance of forces between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and 4) demonstrating flexibility and adaptability. But the application of all these principles of Realpolitik within the framework of ethical and universal human values demonstrated a successful test of "Ethical Realpolitik" in practice.
The postulate of the 21st century: Universal human values are an indisputable principle of Realpolitik!
This, that is, reliance on values, was a truly rational and pragmatic approach. Therefore, unlike past centuries, in the 21st century, ethical and universal human values are already a principle of Realpolitik, and Azerbaijan proved this in practice during and after the 44-day war and the one-day anti-terrorist operation.
And the rocket shelling of residential areas in Ganja, Tartar, and other settlements is a cruel Realpolitik approach, devoid of ethical and human values, designed to achieve results at any cost. But experience has shown that this demoralized Armenia even more, whose occupation policy and behavior lost legitimacy throughout the world, and further strengthened the moral legitimacy of Azerbaijan's military operations. As a result, Armenia's old Realpolitik approach, denying values, in practice confirmed the erroneousness of the opposite of what Azerbaijan applied.
That is, what Azerbaijan won by giving preference to ethical norms, and what Armenia lost by denying them, confirmed the formula "Realpolitik + universal human/ethical values". Now politics without universal human and ethical values cannot be considered pragmatic politics. This is an indisputable component that the technological development of the 21st century has added to the principles of "Realpolitik".
President Ilham Aliyev's statement"...in today's world, such a concept as international law does not exist", followed by the thought "Naturally, you yourself must be sure that you are on the right path. No country, no leader should do anything wrong...", is a call to awareness of "Realpolitik" in a new content, in the reality of the 21st century.
But how do we enter an era where "there is no international law", but only "strength", "cooperation", "alliance", "mutual support"? This is now the main question!
We can answer this question and assess the situation based precisely on the principles of "Ethical Realpolitik".
First of all, as a result of the 44-day war and the anti-terrorist operation, Azerbaijan entered a dangerous era having eliminated and neutralized its main threat factors. Currently, five basic, generalized principles are being applied to preserve what has been achieved, to safely emerge from the era of chaos, and to ensure national interests.
First principle: Strengthening defense capability and security
Azerbaijan continues to build an army in accordance with modern standards. For several years now, defense and security have been the main expenditure items of the state budget.
Second principle: In any case, remain within the framework of international law
From the President's statements, it became clear that even in the most critical situations with international law, actions proceeding from the norms of international law are a basic principle of Azerbaijan's foreign policy and security in the current period.
Third principle: Commitment to universal human and ethical values — to be "on the right path", to be just
The President announced that Azerbaijan is true to the principles of "just war", international law, and humanism, which it applied in practice during the 44-day war and the anti-terrorist operation.
Fourth principle: Determining the closest allies and dominant directions in foreign policy
At the inauguration ceremony on February 14, 2024, the President, speaking about the Organization of Turkic States, "this is for us the main international organization, because this is our family. We have no other family. Our family is the Turkic world", indicated the dominant direction of foreign policy. And the Shusha Declaration defined Türkiye and Azerbaijan as the closest allies.
The Memorandum of Understanding on strengthening military security approved in December 2025, in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter, expands the provision of military assistance to each other, using the right to collective self-defense, and the exchange of information in the field of military intelligence.
Also in December, Prime Minister Ali Asadov and Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz approved a 110-point Cooperation Plan. The Action Plan provides for bilateral cooperation covering the economy, trade, transport, energy, education, agriculture and other relevant areas. This document aims to achieve the goal of trade turnover of 15 billion dollars between the two countries and strengthen the strategic partnership. From the previous Action Plan, which consisted of 120 points, 93 points or 78% were fulfilled.
With Azerbaijan's accession to C5, uniting five states of Central Asia, the structure was officially formalized as C6. After the summit in Tashkent in November 2025, Azerbaijan joined this association as a full member. This shows the region's desire to act already as a single political-economic space, as well as a security space. The C5+Azerbaijan (C6) platform allows these countries to act with a unified and stronger position in the face of common threats. The essence of the format also lies in strengthening the economic and political foundation of the integration of the "Turkic World", creating joint mechanisms against common threats (security, terrorism, etc.). C5+Azerbaijan is no longer just a dialogue platform, but a single regional bloc connected through the Caspian Sea and aimed at becoming a new economic center of Eurasia.
Finally, Pakistan's entry into the category of closest allies, which also includes defense and security, is a guarantee of our country's security during chaotic fluctuations.
Fifth principle: Achieving a balance of global forces around the country and continuing multipolar foreign policy
Diversification of foreign policy is one of the strongest aspects of Azerbaijan's foreign policy and security policy. From the President's speech, the conclusion follows that relations with the USA, the European Union and the People's Republic of China are the main partner poles regulating the "balance of power" — one of the main principles of "Realpolitik".
Back in January 2024, during an interview with local journalists, President I. Aliyev, supporting D. Trump's presidency, accurately predicted in which direction the balance of power would change in the future not only in US domestic politics, but also on a global scale in general. Although at that time the global leadership of the USA in the world was being called into very serious question.
On August 8, 2025, by initialing a peace agreement with Armenia in Washington, in the White House, he correctly determined the place of the center of gravity in the balance of power in the world and became the first leader, head of state, to give a definition to the new world order and balance of power, calling the White House "office number 1 in the world". This is an example of accurate forecasting and application of the logic of "Realpolitik" in practice.
President Ilham Aliyev also did not object to the TRIPP project, and thus the US interest in the South Caucasus region and the Zangezur corridor was ensured. Thus, the profitability of Trump's route is directly related to the high profitability of the Zangezur corridor as a whole.
The state of Baku-Washington relations after August 08, 2025 became a signal for European states as well. President I. Aliyev announced the arrival of new cooperation proposals from Europe: "After signing the Memorandum of Understanding with President Trump on the creation of a Strategic Working Group to prepare the Charter on Strategic Partnership, several leading European countries have approached us to establish strategic partnership relations". Thus, currently there are appeals for new countries to join the ranks of 10 strategic allies of Azerbaijan — members of the European Union. Azerbaijan is a reliable energy supplier for Europe, and this role of ours will only increase.
The Joint Declaration on Strategic Partnership with the PRC has brought relations to a new stage. Chinese companies are the main partners of Azerbaijan in the transport sector and the renewable energy sector. However, the expected cooperation in the defense industry already takes ties beyond economic partnership, giving them a more strategic essence.
Thus, in the era of global chaos, Azerbaijan conducts a national security policy in accordance with all the principles of "Realpolitik", builds up defense power, creates alliances, creates a balance of power, and at the same time considers and applies the norms of international law (even if formally existing), universal human and ethical values as an integral in the modern era component of "Realpolitik".
